GDP growth (quarterly annualized %), inflation (CPI year-over-year %), and unemployment rate (%) tracked from Trump’s inauguration through Q1 2026.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve. Q1 2026 GDP is advance estimate.
Trump entered his second term in January 2025 inheriting a softly landing economy: inflation had declined from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to 2.9%, the Federal Reserve had begun cutting rates, and unemployment was at 4.1% — historically low. The early economic picture looked manageable.
The pivot point came in spring 2025, when the administration announced sweeping new tariffs: baseline 10-25% duties on imports from most trading partners, and escalating tariffs on Chinese goods reaching above 100% on key categories. Trading partners retaliated. Business investment paused. Consumers began front-loading purchases ahead of anticipated price increases — temporarily inflating Q4 2025 GDP figures — then pulled back sharply in Q1 2026.
By April 2026, the economic picture had deteriorated on nearly every metric that voters feel directly: groceries, housing, stock portfolios, and job security. Consumer confidence hit levels last seen during the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis — a period widely remembered as politically toxic for the governing party.
Economists across the ideological spectrum have identified tariff policy as the primary driver of the economic deterioration. The mechanism is straightforward: import duties raise costs for American businesses that rely on foreign inputs, and for American consumers who buy foreign-made goods. Those costs flow through to inflation.
| Tariff Category | Rate | Consumer Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese goods (electronics, appliances) | 54–145% | Avg. +$800/yr per household on electronics |
| Steel & aluminum (global) | 25% | Auto prices up ~$3,000; construction costs elevated |
| All other imports (baseline) | 10–25% | Clothing, footwear, household goods up 8–18% |
| Agricultural retaliation (inbound) | China: 34% on US ag | Soybean exports to China down ~34%; farm income pressure |
| EU goods (bilateral escalation) | 20% | Wine, machinery, pharmaceuticals affected |
Polling data: 67% of Americans say tariffs have hurt their family financially. Only 24% believe tariffs will help the US economy in the long run (Reuters/Ipsos, March 2026).
| Metric | First Term (15 mo.) | Second Term (15 mo.) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (avg quarterly) | +2.6% | −0.3% | −2.9pts |
| Inflation (15-month mark) | 2.1% | 3.8% | +1.7pts |
| Unemployment | 4.1% (down from 4.7%) | 4.4% (up from 4.1%) | Reversed trend |
| S&P 500 performance | +18% | −15% | −33pts |
| Consumer confidence | Rising (96 → 101) | Falling (71 → 57) | Reversed trend |
| Economic approval (Gallup) | 46% | 37% | −9pts |
First-term data excludes the COVID-19 shock period (Q1–Q2 2020) for comparability. Sources: BEA, BLS, Gallup, S&P Global.
| Category | Change Since Jan 2025 | % Voters Citing as Top Concern |
|---|---|---|
| Groceries & food prices | +9.4% | 78% |
| Housing costs / mortgage rates | 7.2% rate (unchanged) | 64% |
| Auto prices (tariff effect) | +$2,500–4,000 on new cars | 52% |
| Credit card interest rates | Average 22.1% APR | 47% |
| Gasoline | +18% vs Jan 2025 | 61% |
| Utility bills / energy | +11% | 44% |
Among partisan groups, independent voters have moved the most sharply against Trump’s economic performance. In January 2025, independents gave Trump a net +3 rating on economic approval. By April 2026, that figure had fallen to −16 — a 19-point swing that mirrors the broader deterioration in consumer confidence among non-partisan voters.
Why it matters: Independent voters are the decisive bloc in competitive 2026 House and Senate races. A 19-point swing in economic approval among independents — if it holds through November — would translate directly into the suburban seat losses that flip chamber control.
How the tariff program is polling and why it matters for November.
Only 37% approve of Trump's handling of the economy. What Gallup and Quinnipiac show.
The UMich index at 57: what it predicts for the midterms.
