Poland: Tusk Returns, EU Funds Unblocked & NATO's Eastern Pillar

Poland's October 2023 elections ended eight years of rule by the Law and Justice party (PiS, led by Jarosław Kaczyński), a period marked by deep conflicts with EU institutions over judicial independence, press freedom, and democratic norms. Donald Tusk — a former European Council President, former Polish Prime Minister, and the EU's most prominent Central European politician — led a broad coalition of four parties to a combined majority in parliament. Taking office in December 2023, Tusk immediately set about restoring Poland's relationships with Brussels and Berlin, which had deteriorated dramatically under PiS. His government has worked to unblock approximately €60 billion in EU cohesion and recovery funds that the European Commission had frozen over rule-of-law concerns.

The judicial reform process has proven more complicated than expected. PiS-appointed judges continue to occupy positions throughout the court system, including the Constitutional Tribunal, creating a parallel legal landscape that complicates Tusk's efforts to restore judicial independence. The situation was further complicated by President Andrzej Duda — a PiS ally — who remained in office until the May 2025 presidential election and used his presidential powers to block or delay legislation and pardon PiS-aligned officials. The election of Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw's mayor and a Tusk ally, as President in May 2025 removed this institutional friction and gave the government greater coherence.

Poland's geopolitical position gives it outsized importance in EU and NATO affairs that its economy and population alone would not fully justify. The country shares land borders with Belarus (now an autocratic Russian ally), the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and Ukraine — making it the EU's most exposed front-line state vis-a-vis Russian aggression. Poland has responded by undertaking the most dramatic peacetime military buildup in recent NATO history, committing to spend 4% of GDP on defense — nearly double the NATO target — and purchasing large quantities of US, South Korean, and European military equipment. This commitment has made Poland a central figure in NATO planning and has given Tusk significant credibility in pushing for greater EU-level defense integration.

Poland is the largest of the Central and Eastern European EU member states and, in many ways, the most important. Its economic transformation since 1989 is one of the most successful in post-communist history, and it is now one of the EU's ten largest economies. Under PiS, Poland's potential EU influence was squandered by constant conflicts with Brussels; under Tusk, Poland is repositioning as a constructive and influential EU player. Tusk's personal credibility — as former EU Council President, he knows every EU leader personally and understands the Brussels machinery intimately — gives Poland advantages in EU negotiations that few Central European countries have ever enjoyed.

Polish MEPs are divided: PiS MEPs sit in the ECR group, while Tusk's coalition parties are spread across EPP, Renew, and the S&D group. This means Poland does not speak with one voice in EU Parliament, but the government's pro-EU orientation has allowed Warsaw to rebuild bilateral relationships with Paris and Berlin that are essential for influencing EU-level decisions. On Ukraine, Poland is the EU's most vocal advocate for continued and escalated military support, reflecting its geographic proximity and historical experience with Russian imperialism.