- Current average: 38.6% approve / 58.2% disapprove (net -19.6) — compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Morning Consult
- Independent approval: 34% — down 14 points from 48% at inauguration. Now below the 36% level that preceded Democrats' 41-seat wave in 2018
- In 2018, Trump's independent approval was 36% before Democrats gained 41 House seats. At 34% now, he has crossed that historical threshold
- Republican approval remains 87% — a floor that historically doesn't fall below 80% regardless of policy controversies
- The generic ballot has responded to approval decline: Democrats now lead D+6.7 — consistent with significant House seat gains historically
Monthly Tracking — January to May 2026
| Month | Approve | Disapprove | Net | R Approve | D Approve | I Approve | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 44% | 53% | −9 | 89% | 8% | 42% | Post-holiday; economy still expanding; tariff threats not yet biting |
| February 2026 | 43% | 54% | −11 | 88% | 7% | 40% | Tariff announcements cause market turbulence; first price increases visible |
| March 2026 | 41% | 56% | −15 | 86% | 6% | 37% | Q1 GDP tracking below zero; consumer confidence plummets; lowest approval |
| April 2026 | 43% | 55% | −12 | 87% | 7% | 38% | Slight partisan consolidation; R base reassembles around tariff framing |
| May 2026 Latest | 38.6% | 58.2% | -19.6 | ~86% | ~6% | ~34% | Live average — updated daily via Wikipedia aggregator |
Sources: Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac, Morning Consult 7-day rolling averages. Partisan breakdown from Gallup monthly party crosstabs.
Approval Trend: Jan 2025 – May 2026
Trump's second-term approval began with a 47% inauguration bump, declined steadily through 2025, fell to 41% in March 2026, briefly recovered to 43% in April, then dropped sharply to 38.1% in May 2026 — the lowest approval of either Trump term. The May collapse reflects accelerating tariff-driven inflation and Q1 GDP coming in at +2.0% but PCE inflation hitting 4.5% — raising stagflation concerns.
Video: Trump's Approval in Context
CBS News: New poll shows low Trump approval rating and gloomy take on the economy.
Approval by Political Group — May 2026
| Demographic Group | Approve | Disapprove | Net | Trend vs. Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 87% | 11% | +76 | Stable (+1) |
| Democrats | 7% | 91% | −84 | Stable (0) |
| Independents | 34% | 61% | −27 | Down 8 pts |
| Men | 50% | 47% | +3 | Down 3 pts |
| Women | 37% | 62% | −25 | Down 4 pts |
| White voters | 52% | 45% | +7 | Down 2 pts |
| Non-white voters | 28% | 68% | −40 | Down 5 pts |
| College-educated | 36% | 62% | −26 | Down 6 pts |
| Non-college | 51% | 46% | +5 | Down 1 pt |
| Suburban voters | 40% | 57% | −17 | Down 7 pts |
| Rural voters | 61% | 36% | +25 | Stable (+1) |
Historical Comparison: Trump 1st Term vs. 2nd Term vs. Other Presidents
Comparing presidential approval at the equivalent point in their presidency (approximately 14–15 months in). Trump's second-term 43% sits between his own first-term performance and the modern presidential average of approximately 46%.
| President / Term | Approval ~Month 15 | Net Approval | Midterm House Result | Key Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 2nd Term (current) | 38.6% | -19.6 | TBD Nov 2026 | May 2026: tariff-driven inflation, Q1 GDP +2.0% but PCE inflation 4.5%; stagflation warning |
| Trump 1st Term (2017) | 37% | −20 | R −41 seats | Russia investigation; healthcare bill failure; base firm |
| Obama 1st Term (2009) | 55% | +12 | D −63 seats | Financial crisis stimulus; Tea Party backlash forming |
| Obama 2nd Term (2013) | 47% | −3 | D −13 seats | ACA rollout struggles; NSA revelations; gridlock |
| George W. Bush (2001) | 62% | +26 | R +8 seats (2002) | Post-9/11 rally; unusual gain for president's party |
| George W. Bush (2005) | 46% | −4 | R −30 seats | Katrina; Iraq War; Plame affair; approval declining |
| Bill Clinton (1993) | 50% | +4 | D −54 seats | Gays in military; deficit; healthcare reform struggles |
| Bill Clinton (1997) | 58% | +18 | D +5 seats (1998) | Strong economy; re-elected 1996; Lewinsky not yet public |
| Joe Biden (2021) | 53% | +9 | D −9 seats | Post-COVID; inflation just beginning to accelerate |
| Ronald Reagan (1981) | 59% | +21 | R −26 seats | Tax cuts; recession deepening; Reaganomics debate |
Polling Sources & Methodology
What the Approval Numbers Mean for November 2026
Presidential approval is the single strongest predictor of midterm House majority swings available 7+ months before Election Day. The correlation is not perfect — candidate quality, redistricting, and fundraising create variance — but the directional signal is reliable.
The 40% independent threshold. Every president who lost more than 20 House seats at midterms had independent approval below 40% heading into November. Trump's current 34% independent approval puts him well below that threshold — and now below the 36% level that preceded Democrats' 41-seat gain in 2018. The question is not whether Trump's numbers predict Democratic gains — they do — but whether structural features of the 2026 map (more competitive Senate seats in blue states than red states, gerrymandered House districts) suppress the translation of approval drag into seat losses.
Tariff trajectory is the key variable. Trump's approval decline from 47% at inauguration to 38.1% by May 2026 tracks almost perfectly with economic anxiety indicators — particularly the tariff-driven price increases that consumers began feeling in Q1 2026 and which accelerated through Q2. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates while tariff inflation builds creates a further cost-of-living squeeze. May 2026 approval of 38.1% has already crossed below his 2017 first-term low of 37% — the next question is how far it falls.
Senate implications. The states with the most competitive 2026 Senate races — Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — are states where presidential approval creates significant coattail effects. A Democratic presidential approval advantage of 12+ points among independents creates a favorable environment for Democratic Senate candidates in toss-up states. See the generic ballot tracker for the translated House environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Trump's approval rating in May 2026?
38.6% approve, 58.2% disapprove — net -19.6 points. Compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac, and Morning Consult monthly averages. May 2026 marks the sharpest single-month decline and the lowest approval of either Trump term, driven by tariff-driven inflation and Q1 GDP coming in at +2.0% but PCE inflation hitting 4.5% — a stagflation pattern last seen in the 1970s.
How do Republicans, Democrats, and Independents rate Trump?
Republicans 87% approve; Democrats 7% approve; Independents 34% approve. The independent figure is the most electorally significant — it has declined 14 points from Trump's 48% inaugural-period independent approval, and now sits below the 36% level that preceded Democrats' 41-seat wave gain in 2018. Suburban voters and college-educated voters are driving the decline.
How does Trump's approval compare to other presidents at this stage?
At ~Month 16, Trump's 38.1% is below his own first-term low (37%), making May 2026 the lowest approval of either Trump term. It sits well below every modern comparison: Obama 47-55%, Clinton 50%, Biden 42-53%, Reagan 44-59%, and George W. Bush 62% (post-9/11 rally). The defining feature: an 80-point partisan gap between Republican (87%) and Democratic (7%) approval — the widest ever recorded.
What approval rating predicts a wave midterm?
Presidents below ~45% overall approval and below 40% among independents consistently lose significant House seats. Trump's 38.1% overall and 34% independent approval in May 2026 puts him firmly in wave territory — below the 36% independent approval that preceded Democrats' 41-seat gain in 2018. In 2018, at 36% independent approval, Democrats gained 41 seats. The structural factors that could soften the blow: fewer competitive House districts due to Republican gerrymanders, and a Senate majority that is more Democratic-competitive than Republican-competitive in 2026. See the generic ballot tracker for the current translated environment.
Can Trump's approval rating recover before November 2026?
Presidential approval ratings can recover, but the conditions driving Trump's decline are structural: tariff-driven inflation, rising consumer prices, and sustained independent dissatisfaction. The key recovery scenarios are a negotiated trade deal reducing tariff costs, a sharp improvement in consumer confidence, or an external event triggering a rally effect. Without such a catalyst, independent approval below 40% through Q3 2026 would represent the most challenging midterm environment for House Republicans since 2018. Track the latest shifts on the battleground tracker and the Trump policy tracker.
