- Ron DeSantis is term-limited — Florida's open governor race comes after DeSantis's 2024 presidential campaign undercut his Florida-focused reputation.
- Florida is rated Likely Republican — the state has trended sharply red since 2018, with Republicans holding both Senate seats, the governorship, and the state legislature.
- Democrats' challenge is finding a candidate who can replicate Charlie Crist's 2014 near-win while running in a state that has moved significantly more Republican since then.
- Miami-Dade County's continued shift toward Republicans — driven by Cuban and Venezuelan immigrant communities — has removed Democrats' most reliable South Florida stronghold.
Florida is rated Lean R. DeSantis’s term limit creates the first open-seat governor race in Florida since 2010. With Republicans winning by 13–19 points in recent statewide races, the GOP primary is the decisive contest. Full governor overview →
Race at a Glance
Candidates
Key Issues at a Glance
2022 Result — DeSantis vs. Crist
2022 Florida governor result. DeSantis won by 19.4 points — a landslide that reflected both his personal political brand and Florida’s dramatic rightward shift over the decade. Crist, a former Republican governor running as a Democrat, was widely seen as a weak candidate. The 2026 elections without an incumbent will be closer, but Republicans retain a massive structural advantage.
Key Facts — Florida Governor 2026
Race Analysis
A Wide-Open Republican Primary
DeSantis’s term limit creates the first open-seat Florida governor race in a generation, and the Republican primary will be the decisive contest. Attorney General Ashley Moody was the early frontrunner given her statewide profile and DeSantis’s implicit blessing — until DeSantis appointed her to the US Senate to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio’s appointment as Secretary of State. With Moody now in Washington, the field is genuinely unsettled. Lt. Governor Jeanette Nuñez, a Cuban-American with strong ties to Miami-Dade and a profile that bridges MAGA and establishment wings, is the most prominent remaining figure. The Republican primary will test whether Florida’s GOP coalesces around a candidate who can inherit the DeSantis brand or whether the field fractures between MAGA loyalists, establishment conservatives, and figures with independent political bases.
Democrats and the Structural Disadvantage
Florida Democrats have not won a statewide race since 2018, when Nikki Fried won the Agriculture Commissioner race by a narrow margin. The structural landscape is forbidding: Trump won Florida by 13 points in 2024, DeSantis won by 19 in 2022, and the voter registration gap has widened dramatically in Republicans’ favor. The likely Democratic field faces a recruitment problem — former congressman Charlie Crist is unlikely to run again after his 20-point loss in 2022. Former representative Stephanie Murphy, a moderate from the Orlando suburbs who retired from Congress, has been mentioned as a possibility. Florida Democrats’ core challenge is the Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American diaspora in South Florida, communities that have moved sharply Republican over the past decade and represent the heart of the state’s political geography. Without Miami-Dade returning toward Democrats, there is no path to the governorship.
The DeSantis Legacy and the Insurance Crisis
The next Florida governor will inherit a state facing structural economic pressures that the culture war dominance of the DeSantis years obscured. Florida’s property insurance crisis is severe: premiums have risen more than 50 percent since 2020, multiple private insurers have exited the state, and Citizens Property Insurance — the state-run insurer of last resort — has become the largest insurer in Florida by default. Coastal homeowners in particular face unaffordable or unavailable coverage as climate risk repricing accelerates. Separately, the DeSantis-era culture war legislation — the Parental Rights in Education law (dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics), the Stop WOKE Act, and the Disney dispute — defines the ideological inheritance any Republican successor must navigate. For some voters this legacy is a strength; for suburban moderates, particularly in Tampa and Orlando, it may represent baggage that a less confrontational Republican could shed.
Key Issues
Property insurance premiums up 50%+ since 2020. Citizens Insurance as insurer of last resort is now Florida’s largest insurer.
Largest Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan diaspora in the US — R-leaning communities that define South Florida’s political geography.
Don’t Say Gay, Stop WOKE Act, Disney dispute — the DeSantis era’s defining legislation as strength or baggage for the successor.
Florida’s tourism and hospitality economy, no state income tax, cost-of-living pressures on the middle class in metro areas.
Accelerating hurricane intensity, sea level rise, coastal infrastructure, and climate-driven insurance market collapse.
School choice expansion, public school funding, curriculum battles, and the post-DeSantis direction of the state university system.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is running for Florida governor in 2026?
The 2026 Florida governor race is an open seat because Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Attorney General Ashley Moody was the early frontrunner but was appointed to the US Senate. Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez is now considered a leading Republican candidate. The Democratic field is still forming.
Is Florida competitive in governor races?
Florida has shifted dramatically toward Republicans. DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by 19 points and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Democrats have not won a statewide Florida race since 2018. The 2026 governor race is rated Lean R, with the Republican primary being the decisive contest.
What issues define the 2026 Florida governor race?
The central issues are the property insurance and housing affordability crisis (premiums up 50%+ since 2020), immigration and the large Latin diaspora in South Florida, the legacy of DeSantis-era culture war legislation, climate and hurricane preparedness, and the state's tourism-dependent economy.
How bad is Florida's property insurance crisis?
Florida's property insurance market is in structural crisis. Premiums have risen more than 50% since 2020. More than a dozen private insurers have declared insolvency or withdrawn from the state. Citizens Property Insurance — the state-run insurer of last resort — now has over 1.4 million policies, making it the single largest insurer in Florida. Coastal homeowners in particular face coverage that is either unaffordable or unavailable. The root causes are increasing hurricane frequency and intensity driven by climate change, combined with litigation costs that drove up insurer losses. The next governor's handling of this crisis is likely to define their first term.
