- TX-28 is rated Lean Republican — the Republican incumbent enters as a modest favorite but faces real risk.
- The Democratic incumbent is among the Republicans' top targets in their drive to expand their House majority.
- Suburban voter realignment since 2018 has made Texas's competitive congressional districts bellwethers for how college-educated voters respond to the national political environment.
- With Republicans holding a narrow House majority, every competitive district race contributes to whether Republicans expand their margin or Democrats recapture the chamber in 2026.
TX-28 is rated Lean Republican. Cuellar's conviction removes the only Democrat capable of winning this Trump +6 district. Without his incumbency shield, Democrats must field an untested candidate against a favorable Republican environment. Full House overview →
2024 Presidential Result in TX-28
Approximate 2024 presidential vote share in TX-28. Trump won by roughly 6 points — a stark reversal from the district's Democratic presidential performance just eight years earlier.
Key Facts — TX-28
Race Analysis
The Cuellar Collapse and the Open Seat Problem
Texas's 28th congressional district covers Laredo and Webb County — one of the most heavily Hispanic communities in the United States — along with stretches of South and Central Texas that have undergone some of the most dramatic political shifts in modern American electoral history. Webb County, which encompasses Laredo, was once so reliably Democratic that Republicans barely bothered contesting it. In 2020, Biden won it by 33 points. By 2024, that margin had collapsed to roughly 12 points — a 21-point swing in a single election cycle. Across TX-28 as a whole, Trump managed a presidential margin of approximately +6, a district that was competitive Democratic territory as recently as 2018.
For two decades, Henry Cuellar navigated this shifting landscape through an unusual combination of bipartisan positioning and deep local roots. As a Blue Dog Democrat who voted against gun control measures, supported border enforcement, and cultivated relationships with business interests on both sides of the Rio Grande, Cuellar built a personal brand that insulated him from national partisan headwinds. He survived a primary challenge from the left in 2022 by just 289 votes and continued to win general elections even as the district beneath him slid toward Republicans. His federal corruption conviction on bribery and money laundering charges in 2024 ended that era abruptly.
Without Cuellar's individual political identity, Democrats face a structural problem in TX-28 that goes deeper than candidate recruitment. The district's Hispanic voters have moved toward the Republican Party along economic and cultural lines that transcend any single candidate's personal appeal. High cost of living, border security concerns, small business ownership, and a cultural conservatism that finds more resonance with the modern Republican Party than the national Democratic brand have all contributed to this realignment. Republicans will recruit from a strong field — potentially including figures with deep South Texas ties who can consolidate the gains made in 2022 and 2024. Democrats must hope that a credible local candidate combined with a favorable national environment can overcome a presidential lean that no Democrat without Cuellar's unique advantages could reliably win.
Key Issues
Border & Immigration
Laredo is a major port of entry. Border security is not an abstract issue here — it directly affects trade, public safety, and daily life. TX-28 voters have moved sharply toward candidates who take a harder line on border enforcement, rewarding Republicans who once struggled in this terrain.
Hispanic Realignment
The broader shift of South Texas Hispanic voters toward the GOP is the defining structural story of TX-28. Economic populism, cultural conservatism, and dissatisfaction with the national Democratic Party have combined to make Webb County — once a Democratic fortress — genuinely competitive.
Candidate Quality
With Cuellar gone, both parties face a wide-open recruitment contest. The Democrat who emerges from the primary will need deep local roots, credibility on border security, and the ability to attract crossover voters in a way that most national Democrats cannot replicate in South Texas.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is TX-28 an open seat in 2026?
TX-28 is an open seat because incumbent Henry Cuellar, a Blue Dog Democrat who held the district since 2005, was convicted on federal corruption charges in 2024. His conviction effectively ended his congressional career and forced Democrats to find a new candidate for a district that already leans Republican at the presidential level.
What is the rating for TX-28 in 2026?
TX-28 is rated Lean Republican in 2026. Trump won the district by approximately 6 points at the presidential level in 2024, and without Cuellar's personal incumbency advantage, Democrats face a steep climb in a district that has been trending Republican as part of the broader Rio Grande Valley realignment.
What is the Rio Grande realignment and how does it affect TX-28?
The Rio Grande realignment refers to the dramatic shift of heavily Hispanic South Texas counties toward the Republican Party between 2016 and 2024. In TX-28, which covers Laredo and Webb County, Hispanic voters who were once reliable Democrats have moved significantly toward Trump. This structural shift makes any Democrat without Cuellar's unique local brand highly vulnerable in 2026.
National Context & Race Outlook
TX-28 is a Lean Republican district in South Texas covering Laredo and border communities. The tracks all races. Watch the . and border security are the defining issues. and also matter for South Texas voters. Follow and strategy.
