2026 Governor Races: 36 States Vote

New Hampshire — Open Seat

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is leaving after four terms to pursue other options. NH has a strong independent voter tradition — 40%+ of the electorate registers undeclared. The state went narrowly for Biden in 2020 and is a genuine 50-50 battleground for the governorship with no clear ideological lean in an open-seat scenario. Key issues: property taxes, housing costs and Medicaid expansion.

Vermont — Open Seat

Republican Gov. Phil Scott — one of the most popular governors in the country — is term-limited. Vermont is a deeply blue state but has a tradition of electing moderate Republican governors. Without Scott on the ticket, Democrats are heavily favored but the race retains competitive interest. A strong Republican moderate could keep it close.

Colorado — Open Seat (Polis term-limited)

Gov. Jared Polis is term-limited. Colorado has trended significantly blue over the past decade, driven by Front Range suburban growth and an influx of college-educated voters. Republicans would need an exceptional candidate and a strong national environment to be competitive. Key issues: housing costs, water rights and energy policy.

Minnesota — Open Seat (Walz term-limited)

VP candidate Tim Walz is term-limited. Minnesota remains competitive — Trump lost by just 1.5 points in 2024. A strong Republican candidate running on economic issues and public safety in the Minneapolis metro could make this race genuinely competitive. Democrats have a structural advantage in Twin Cities turnout.

Oregon — Open Seat (Kotek)

Gov. Tina Kotek may be eligible for re-election but faces significant headwinds on homelessness and housing costs in Portland. Oregon passed a landmark drug decriminalization law that was subsequently reversed — an issue that cut Republican and Democratic ways simultaneously. A competitive open primary could produce an unusual general election matchup.

Rhode Island — Open Seat

Gov. Dan McKee's term status and Rhode Island's small size make this a lower-profile open race. The state is structurally Democratic but has elected moderate Republican governors before. Key issues: economy, Brown University's relationship with Providence and coastal resilience.

Reliably Republican

States where Republicans will win regardless of national environment:

• Texas — Greg Abbott running again in a state Trump won by 14 pts
• Florida — Open seat (DeSantis term-limited) but deeply red at the state level
• Ohio — DeWine is a popular incumbent in a state trending reliably R
• Georgia — Open seat (Kemp term-limited) but structural R advantage remains
• South Carolina — McMaster running in a state with no competitive D statewide

Reliably Democratic

States where Democrats will win regardless of national environment:

• California — Open seat (Newsom term-limited) but a +30 state for D
• New York — Hochul running in a state Dems dominate statewide
• Massachusetts — Healey is popular and the state is structurally blue
• Hawaii — Green running in the bluest state in the country
• Illinois — Pritzker running in a state with a massive Chicago D advantage

Redistricting Leverage

Governors elected in 2026 will in most states have veto power over the 2030 redistricting maps drawn after the Census. This makes each competitive governorship a decade-long investment in congressional representation — not just a four-year executive role.

2028 Presidential Pipeline

Gubernatorial wins in 2026 build the candidate bench for the 2028 presidential cycle. Democratic governors of large swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — are among the most likely presidential contenders, making their re-election bids significant beyond the state level.

Election Administration

In states without independent secretaries of state, governors appoint election officials and control the legal infrastructure that certifies presidential results. After the 2020 certification disputes, the party control of governorships in swing states like Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan has taken on additional significance for 2028.