2026 Senate Map: Every Race Rated
35 Senate seats on the ballot. Democrats defend 23, Republicans 12. Here is every race rated by competitiveness — updated with May 2026 polling data.
Toss-Up Races (6)
| State | Incumbent | Status | 2020 Pres. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Open (Shaheen retiring) | Biden +7 | Shaheen’s retirement opens this seat for the first time since 2002. Kelly Ayotte (R, now Governor) is the natural GOP candidate but is barred from running. Chris Sununu (R) is most discussed. Maggie Goodlander and Chris Pappas on the D side. |
| Minnesota | Tina Smith (D) | Open (Smith retiring) | Biden +7 | Smith’s retirement opens a Democratic-held seat in a state Biden won by 7 but Harris won by only 5. The Minneapolis metro anchors Democratic margins. Republicans see this as a pickup opportunity with the right candidate. |
| Michigan | Gary Peters (D) | Open (Peters retiring) | Biden +3 | Peters is retiring, leaving a purple-state seat open. Elissa Slotkin (D) moved to the Senate in 2024; this open seat draws multiple candidates. Michigan went for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and Harris narrowly in 2024. |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | Incumbent defending | Biden +0.2 | Ossoff won his seat by 1.2 points in the January 2021 runoff. Trump carried Georgia by 2 in 2024. Ossoff’s fundraising has been strong, but the political environment in Georgia tests Democratic incumbency in a rightward-shifting state. |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | Incumbent defending | Biden +9 | Collins survived a challenging 2020 race by 8 points in a state Biden won by 9. At 73, she will face questions about another term. Maine uses ranked-choice voting. She has been a top Democratic target since 2018. |
| Colorado | Michael Bennet (D) | Incumbent defending | Biden +13 | Bennet has won by comfortable margins but in a state that has trended Democratic. Republicans hope their 2026 candidate can capitalize on cost-of-living frustration. Colorado is Biden+13 but Trump improved his margin by 2 points in 2024. |
Lean Democratic (4)
| State | Incumbent | 2024 Pres. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | Mark Warner (D) | Harris +6 | Warner has won re-election twice. Virginia has moved steadily blue but its margins have shrunk. Northern Virginia’s federal workforce and NoVA suburbs are Warner’s firewall. |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich (D) | Harris +7 | New Mexico has drifted slightly right with Hispanic voters. Heinrich won comfortably in 2020. Republicans could target this if they recruit a strong candidate and if Hispanic vote movement continues. |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley (D) | Harris +14 | Merkley is a reliable liberal in a safely blue state for senator. Oregon went through a period of political turbulence with homelessness and crime debates but remains solidly Democratic at the statewide level. |
| Illinois | Open (Durbin retiring) | Harris +14 | Dick Durbin’s retirement after 28 years creates an open seat in a blue-leaning state. Democrats have multiple strong candidates. Republicans would need a major wave to be competitive here. Lean-D but worth watching. |
Lean Republican (4)
| State | Incumbent | 2024 Pres. | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis (R) | Trump +3 | Tillis won by 1.7 points in 2020. A competitive state that narrowly favored Trump in 2024. Democrats see Tillis as vulnerable if they recruit the right candidate — possibly Josh Stein’s team alumni. |
| Iowa | Joni Ernst (R) | Trump +13 | Ernst won by 8 points in 2020 in a state that has shifted sharply red. Democrats would need a dramatic wave. The Farm Bureau influence and rural consolidation of Republicans makes Iowa increasingly difficult terrain. |
| Texas | John Cornyn (R) | Trump +14 | Texas’s rapid rightward shift since 2022 makes Cornyn’s seat safer than it appeared in 2018-2020. Democrats had hoped to be competitive; the 2024 results (Cruz +13) dashed those hopes short-term. |
| Kentucky | Open (McConnell retiring) | Trump +30 | Mitch McConnell’s retirement creates an open seat in a deep-red state. The Republican primary will be fiercely contested. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Kentucky since 2003 (attorney general). |
Safe Democratic Seats (15)
Most of these seats are safe by 10+ points. Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are technically lean-D but are expected to remain in Democratic hands unless the environment shifts dramatically.
Safe Republican Seats (8)
These Republican-held seats are not competitive. All are in states Trump won by 15+ points in 2024.
What the Map Means for Senate Control
Republicans enter 2026 with a 53-47 majority. To flip the Senate, Democrats would need to net +4 seats — winning 51 total. This requires holding every competitive Democratic seat while flipping at least four Republican-held seats.
The most plausible Democratic gains come from Maine (Collins, in a blue state) and North Carolina (Tillis, in a toss-up state). Both would require strong Democratic candidates and a favorable national environment.
The most plausible Republican gains come from open seats in New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan — all states Biden won in 2020 but that Republicans have been competitive in with the right candidates.
The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. With Trump at 38.8% approval and a D+5.7 generic ballot, Democrats have a strong environment. But the map — not the environment — is the primary constraint. Democrats must protect 23 seats before they can flip any.
Current National Environment
Source: Trump Approval Tracker • Generic Ballot • Right Track / Wrong Track