The Starting Point: Second Term Opens Higher
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2025, with an approval rating of approximately 47% in the major polling composite — two points higher than his first inauguration number of 45% in January 2017. The improvement reflected both the legitimacy boost of a clear popular vote plurality (Trump won the 2024 popular vote by roughly 1.5 points, the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since 2004) and a degree of post-election goodwill that typically lifts incoming presidents briefly. His second inauguration was seen by many Americans as a fresh start following an unusual campaign cycle.
The 47% start was nonetheless below the post-World War II average for incoming presidents, most of whom enter office with approval ratings in the 55-65% range. Trump is an outlier in both directions: more polarized, more divisive, and yet more durably popular with his base than almost any other modern president. His floor in the first term was 34%; his ceiling was 49%. The second term has so far operated in a narrower band, but the direction of movement has been consistently downward.
The Rate of Decline: Why the Second Term Is Falling Faster
In Trump's first term, the approval decline from inauguration to floor took roughly 7 months to hit 34%, then partially recovered and stabilized in the high 30s to low 40s for much of 2018, 2019, and 2020. The total decline over four years was approximately 11 points. In the second term, 7.8 points have been shed in just 15 months. If that rate holds, Trump would reach the first-term floor of 34% before the 2026 midterms in November.
Political scientists point to tariff policy as the primary mechanism. The sweeping tariffs announced in early-to-mid 2025 — significantly broader than the 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs of the first term — affected consumer prices across multiple categories including electronics, clothing, and household goods. Economic approval, which closely tracks overall approval for Trump, fell more sharply than at any equivalent point in the first term. In the first term, economic approval remained Trump's strongest issue throughout his presidency. In the second term, it has become a liability.
The other difference is structural: in the first term, crises like Charlottesville and impeachment produced sharp short-term declines that were followed by partial recovery as the news cycle moved on. In the second term, tariff-driven economic discontent produces a slower, steadier downward drift without an obvious short-term recovery mechanism. Voters who disapprove of tariff policy do not change their minds quickly because the price effects they experience in daily life are persistent, not episodic.
Congress Lags Even Further Behind
While Trump's 39.2% approval is historically weak, Congressional Republican approval sits at roughly 16% on handling of the economy — nearly 24 points below the president. Congress typically runs below presidential approval, but the gap is unusually wide and suggests voters are punishing the legislative branch as much as the executive for policy outcomes.
First Term Milestones vs. Second Term Equivalents
The table reveals a notable crossover pattern. Through the first nine months, Trump's second term ran consistently 3-4 points above his equivalent first-term position — the "fresh start" premium of a new term plus a stronger electoral mandate. By month 15, the second term has fallen below the first term equivalent: 39.2% versus 40.2%. The second term has essentially erased its early advantage through a steeper rate of decline. At current pace, the two trajectories will diverge further as the second term continues to drop while the first-term equivalent stabilized in this period before recovering briefly in 2019.
What This Means for 2026
The first-term equivalent for the 2018 midterms saw Trump at approximately 41-42% approval in the final weeks before November 2018, and Democrats gained 41 House seats. If the second term approval continues to track at or below first-term levels by November 2026, the structural environment for Democrats would be at least as favorable as 2018 — and potentially more so if approval continues declining from 39% toward the low 30s.
The 16% Congressional approval number compounds the problem for Republicans. Historically, House results track presidential approval more closely than Congressional approval, but the gap between a 39% president and a 16% Congress is unusual and may indicate voter frustration with the legislative branch specifically — suggesting that even Republicans in competitive seats who have distanced themselves from Trump's tariff positions may face headwinds tied to the broader performance of the Republican-controlled legislature. The second term, which started higher than the first, may end up producing a worse midterm environment than 2018.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Trump's second-term approval compare to his first?
Trump started his second term at 47%, two points above his first-term start of 45%. However, by month 15 (April 2026) second-term approval at 39.2% has fallen below the equivalent first-term point of 40.2%. The second term started better but is declining faster, primarily due to sustained economic discontent from tariff policy.
Why is the second-term decline faster than the first?
Tariffs. The 2025 tariffs were broader than the 2018 tariffs and hit more consumer categories, producing persistent price effects that show up in daily economic experience. First-term drops were sharp but episodic (Charlottesville, impeachment); second-term decline is steadier and driven by sustained economic dissatisfaction, which is harder to reverse quickly.
What was Trump's first-term approval floor?
34%, reached twice: in August 2017 following the Charlottesville response, and again in January 2021 following January 6. He ended his first term at that 34% floor. His second-term approval stands at 39.2% as of April 2026 — above the first-term floor, but declining at a pace that would reach it within 12-18 months if sustained.
