Trump Approval Rating By State 2026
State-by-state breakdown of presidential approval — May 2026
Approval by State (Battleground States)
| State | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 41% | 56% | -15 |
| Michigan | 42% | 55% | -13 |
| Minnesota | 41% | 57% | -16 |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 53% | -9 |
| Wisconsin | 44% | 53% | -9 |
| Georgia | 47% | 50% | -3 |
| Arizona | 45% | 52% | -7 |
| Nevada | 44% | 53% | -9 |
| Colorado | 40% | 57% | -17 |
| North Carolina | 47% | 50% | -3 |
| Virginia | 43% | 54% | -11 |
| Florida | 49% | 48% | +1 |
Presidential Approval & Midterm History
Presidential approval rating is one of the strongest predictors of midterm election outcomes. When a president is below 50% approval, the opposing party typically gains seats. No president with sub-45% approval has avoided significant midterm losses.
Trump’s 43% national approval in May 2026 — below his 2024 election winning level of 47% — suggests a difficult environment for Republicans. Key battleground states show him -13 to -16 net approval, consistent with substantial Democratic gains.
Historical pattern: Obama at 45% approval in October 2010 preceded a 63-seat Republican wave. Clinton at 46% approval in 1994 preceded a 54-seat Republican wave. Trump at 42% approval in 2018 preceded a 41-seat Democratic wave.