North Carolina Senate 2026
Why North Carolina Is Competitive
North Carolina is one of the most interesting political laboratories in America. The state consistently votes Republican in presidential elections — Trump won it by 1.3 points in 2020 and 3.2 points in 2024 — while simultaneously electing statewide Democratic officials. Democrats won the governorship in 2024 (Josh Stein succeeding Roy Cooper), the attorney general’s race, and other statewide offices in the same cycle that Trump carried the state.
Thom Tillis embodies this complexity. He won his first Senate term in 2014 by defeating incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan 48.8%–47.3% in a strong Republican year. His 2020 re-election was one of the closest Senate races of the cycle: he defeated Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham 48.7%–47.0%, a margin of fewer than 100,000 votes, despite the race being roiled mid-campaign by revelations of Cunningham’s personal misconduct.
Tillis is a somewhat unusual Republican senator — he has broken with Trump on immigration (opposing the family separation policy and pushing for bipartisan border legislation), on the Affordable Care Act, and on several procedural votes. This independence makes him a more difficult target for Democrats but occasionally draws right-wing primary challenges.
Historical Results
| Year | Republican | R % | Democrat | D % | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Thom Tillis (inc.) | ~46% | TBD Democrat | ~42% | R +4 (projected) |
| 2020 | Thom Tillis (inc.) | 48.7% | Cal Cunningham | 47.0% | R +1.7 |
| 2014 | Thom Tillis | 48.8% | Kay Hagan (inc.) | 47.3% | R +1.5 |
| 2008 | Elizabeth Dole (inc.) | 44.3% | Kay Hagan | 52.6% | D +8.3 |
| 2002 | Elizabeth Dole | 53.5% | Erskine Bowles | 45.2% | R +8.3 |
Key Issues
Abortion (12-Week Ban)
North Carolina Republicans passed a 12-week abortion ban in 2023, overriding Governor Cooper’s veto. Polling shows 58% of NC voters support at least some abortion access beyond 12 weeks. Tillis voted for federal abortion restrictions but faces pressure from suburban women voters who drove Democratic wins in 2024.
Healthcare & Medicaid
North Carolina expanded Medicaid in 2023 under Republican Gov. Roy Cooper, adding 600,000 residents to coverage. Trump’s proposed Medicaid cuts poll badly in the state — 63% oppose major reductions. This is a key vulnerability for Tillis as a Republican senator.
Economy & Tariffs
North Carolina has significant manufacturing (furniture, textiles, pharma), agriculture (tobacco, pork), and a booming Research Triangle tech sector. Trump’s tariffs poll poorly among NC business owners and farmers. Tillis has been more cautious than most Republicans on tariff support.
What to Watch
Democratic nominee: The quality of the Democratic candidate will largely determine competitiveness. A well-funded, uncontroversial candidate (like state AG Jeff Jackson) versus a flawed primary winner could swing the race 4-5 points.
Tillis primary: Trump has occasionally expressed displeasure with Tillis over his bipartisan immigration work. A strong primary challenge from the right could damage Tillis heading into the general.
Charlotte and Research Triangle suburbs: College-educated suburban voters in the Charlotte metro and the Raleigh-Durham Research Triangle have shifted significantly toward Democrats. Their turnout will be the key variable.