Presidential Results 2000–2024
| Year | D% | R% | Winner | Margin | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 44.7% | 51.0% | Bush | R +6.3 | Solid R; Gore underperformed Southwest |
| 2004 | 44.4% | 54.9% | Bush | R +10.5 | Peak Bush country; McCain on ballot as senator |
| 2008 | 45.1% | 53.6% | McCain | R +8.5 | Home state for McCain; D wave didn’t reach AZ |
| 2012 | 44.6% | 53.7% | Romney | R +9.1 | Obama didn’t contest AZ; slow suburban shift begins |
| 2016 | 45.4% | 49.5% | Trump | R +3.5 | Maricopa shift begins; Clinton contested late |
| 2020 | 49.4% | 49.1% | Biden | D +0.3 | First D presidential win since 1996; Navajo turnout key |
| 2024 | 46.5% | 52.2% | Trump | R +5.7 | Hispanic voter shift to R; suburbs partially reverted |
Key Senate Races 2018–2024
| Year | Seat | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Class 3 | Kyrsten Sinema | Martha McSally | D +2.4 | Sinema (D) |
| 2020 | Class 2 | Mark Kelly | Martha McSally | D +2.4 | Kelly (D) |
| 2022 | Class 2 | Mark Kelly | Blake Masters | D +5.0 | Kelly (D) |
| 2024 | Class 3 | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake | D +5.6 | Gallego (D) |
Trend Analysis: The Suburban Realignment
Arizona spent six decades as one of the most reliably Republican states in the Sun Belt. The shift began slowly in 2016, accelerated dramatically in 2020, then partially reversed in 2024 — leaving the state in genuine toss-up territory.
Key demographic driver: Maricopa County, home to over 60% of the state’s vote, shifted from R+10 in 2004 to D+2 in 2020 to R+5 in 2024. College-educated suburban voters in Scottsdale, Chandler, and Tempe moved sharply against Trump in 2018-2020 but partially returned in 2024. Hispanic voters — who make up roughly 25% of the electorate — shifted noticeably toward Republicans in 2024.
Senate vs. presidential: Arizona Democrats have consistently outrun the presidential margin at the Senate level. Sinema, Kelly (twice), and Gallego all won even in cycles where the presidential margin was closer. This ticket-splitting reflects the strength of candidate quality and biography in Senate races.
2026 Outlook
Mark Kelly faces re-election in 2026 in a state that voted Trump+5.7 in 2024. His strong personal brand, military biography, and effective constituent service give him an above-average floor, but the presidential fundamentals favor Republicans. Arizona remains the top-tier Senate battleground heading into the midterm cycle.
Key variables: Economy, border/immigration sentiment, Republican nominee quality, and Hispanic voter preferences.