California 2026: Four Competitive House Seats, No Senate Race
Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff are both serving multi-year terms — California has no Senate majority math in 2026. The entire federal focus shifts to four Republican-held House districts that tilt Democratic at the presidential level. These seats could collectively decide which party controls the House majority.
California's two US senators serve staggered six-year terms. Alex Padilla (D) was first appointed in 2021 to fill Kamala Harris's vacancy, then won a full six-year term in November 2022 — his seat is next up in 2028. Adam Schiff (D) won a six-year term in November 2024, succeeding the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein — his seat is next up in 2030. No California Senate seat appears on the 2026 ballot.
The Four Competitive Districts
| District | Current Rep. | 2022 Margin | Pres. Lean | Cook Rating | Geography |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-13 | John Duarte (R) | +0.4% | D+5 | Toss-up | Central Valley — Merced, Stanislaus, Madera |
| CA-22 | David Valadao (R) | +3.0% | D+12 | Toss-up | Central Valley — Tulare, Kings, Fresno |
| CA-27 | Mike Garcia (R) | +4.6% | D+6 | Lean R | Santa Clarita Valley, Northern LA County |
| CA-45 | Michelle Steel (R) | +3.3% | D+2 | Toss-up | Orange County, Irvine, Huntington Beach |
| CA-47 | Dave Min (D) | +2.1% | D+4 | Lean D | Orange County, Laguna Beach, Newport Beach |
2022 margins reflect actual election results. Presidential lean based on 2020 Biden performance. Cook Political Report ratings are projections heading into 2026.
District Profiles: The Four Republican-Held Targets
Central Valley: Duarte and Valadao
John Duarte (CA-13) won his seat by fewer than 600 votes over Democrat Adam Gray in 2022 — the closest House race in the country that cycle. Duarte is a farmer and nursery owner from Modesto. The district covers Merced and Stanislaus counties, the heart of California's dairy and almond-growing regions. Agricultural trade policy, particularly tariff impacts on almond and pistachio exports to Asia, is a defining issue. Democratic opposition will focus on Duarte's votes on Medicaid, farm bill provisions, and immigration.
David Valadao (CA-22) has survived multiple close elections over the past decade in a district with one of the highest Hispanic populations of any Republican-held seat. His 2021 vote to impeach Donald Trump earned him Trump's ire, but he survived a primary challenge. Valadao's moderate brand and constituency service record have kept him competitive. The district's presidential lean of D+12 is the most hostile environment of any returning House Republican.
Mike Garcia: Three Times Competitive, Three Times Surviving
Mike Garcia (CA-27) represents the Santa Clarita Valley and portions of the San Fernando and Antelope valleys north of Los Angeles. A Navy veteran and former F/A-18 pilot, Garcia has won three consecutive competitive races in a district that Biden carried in 2020. He has built a reputation for constituent service and moderate positioning on some local issues while maintaining a conservative voting record in Washington.
The district's geography — outer LA suburbs and exurbs with significant defense employment at Edwards Air Force Base — gives Garcia some structural advantages. But the district's 2020 presidential lean of D+6 means a strong Democratic wave environment could dislodge him. Democrats will field a well-funded challenger; the DCCC has marked this seat as a priority target.
Michelle Steel: Orange County's Last Republican Redoubt
Michelle Steel (CA-45) is a Korean-American Republican representing a district centered on Irvine, Huntington Beach, and Seal Beach in Orange County. The district's presidential lean has shifted to roughly D+2 as Orange County's historically Republican suburbs have moved left with the college-educated suburban realignment of the Trump era. Steel won in 2022 by about 3 points over Democrat Jay Chen.
Orange County's large Korean-American and Vietnamese-American communities have historically leaned Republican, giving Steel a demographic anchor that offsets the county's broader shift. But suburban women, college-educated independents, and younger voters have been moving toward Democrats. The 2026 environment — a Democratic-leaning national mood in a midterm with a Republican president — sets up this race as a genuine Toss-up. National money from both parties will flow into CA-45.
