Presidential Results 2000–2024
| Year | D% | R% | Winner | Margin | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 46.8% | 48.1% | Gore | D +0.4 | 7,282 votes; Nader 3.9% cost D more nationally |
| 2004 | 50.2% | 48.9% | Kerry | D +1.3 | Kerry wins NH; NH Democrats surged post-2000 |
| 2008 | 54.1% | 44.5% | Obama | D +9.6 | Obama wave; MA migrants shifted NH D |
| 2012 | 52.0% | 46.4% | Obama | D +5.6 | Obama holds; Romney’s home region doesn’t help |
| 2016 | 47.6% | 47.2% | Clinton | D +0.4 | 2,736 votes; closest since 2000 |
| 2020 | 52.7% | 45.5% | Biden | D +7.2 | Biden solid win; suburban NH moved D |
| 2024 | 51.3% | 46.9% | Harris | D +6.3 | Harris held NH comfortably; not contested by Trump |
Key Races 2018–2024
| Year | Race | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Senate | Jeanne Shaheen | Corky Messner | D +15.6 | Shaheen (D) |
| 2022 | Senate | Maggie Hassan | Don Bolduc | D +9.3 | Hassan (D) |
| 2022 | Governor | Tom Sherman | Chris Sununu | R +15.8 | Sununu (R) |
| 2024 | Governor | Joyce Craig | Kelly Ayotte | R +7.1 | Ayotte (R) |
Trend Analysis: The Massachusetts Migration Effect
New Hampshire’s political transformation from true swing states to lean-Democratic reflects one dominant geographic reality: southern New Hampshire has become a bedroom community for Boston. Hillsborough County (Manchester-Nashua) and Rockingham County (coastal NH) have filled with Massachusetts commuters, professionals, and retirees who brought their more liberal political preferences with them.
The traditional NH identity: New Hampshire’s motto is “Live Free or Die.” The state has no income tax, no sales tax, a strong libertarian streak, and a tradition of independent voting. This produces the unique phenomenon of Democrats winning presidential races while Republicans regularly win the governorship. Chris Sununu won 54-35 in 2022 in the same cycle Democrats won the Senate majority math easily.
North vs. South: Northern New Hampshire (Coos County, Carroll County) trends Republican as rural working-class communities face economic decline. Southern NH is the growth engine and provides the Democratic presidential advantage.
2026 Outlook
Jeanne Shaheen announced she will not seek re-election in 2026, creating an open seat. New Hampshire voted for Harris by 6.3 points in 2024, giving Democrats structural advantage. But Republicans have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to win NH statewide — governor Kelly Ayotte and former governor Chris Sununu could be formidable candidates. This will be one of the most competitive Senate races of 2026.
Key variables: Republican nominee (Sununu factor), Democratic candidate quality, national midterm environment.