New Jersey 2026: Senate Off the Table, House Is the Fight
Andy Kim and Cory Booker are not on the 2026 ballot. The 2025 governor races ended with Mikie Sherrill (D) winning. The 2026 federal battleground in New Jersey is NJ-7 — Tom Kean Jr.'s suburban voters rated Toss-up by major forecasters — and potentially NJ-3 as an open-seat opportunity.
Andy Kim (D) won a full six-year Senate term in November 2024, defeating Republican Curtis Bashaw. Kim had previously represented NJ-3 in the House and stepped up to challenge incumbent Bob Menendez, who faced federal corruption charges. Kim's seat runs through 2030 and is not on the 2026 ballot.
Cory Booker (D) announced in early 2025 he would not seek another Senate term. His Class II seat, last won in 2020, comes up in the 2026 elections. New Jersey would need to hold a special election or a replacement appointment to fill the seat depending on timing and state law. This situation may produce a competitive race depending on the eventual process — watch for developments through 2025.
NJ-7: The Race That Could Flip the House
| Factor | Detail | Implication for 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Incumbent | Tom Kean Jr. (R) | Running for re-election; son of former NJ Gov. Tom Kean |
| 2022 Margin | Kean +~2,000 votes (~0.5%) | Third closest House race in the country that cycle |
| District Geography | Morris + Somerset Counties, NJ suburbs | High-income, educated commuter belt west of NYC |
| Presidential Lean | R+1 (2020) | Marginal Republican lean; flippable in D wave |
| Median Household Income | >$115,000 (Morris Co.) | Pharma/finance workers; tariff/healthcare issues resonate |
| Cook Rating (2026) | Toss-up | One of top 10 most competitive House races nationally |
| Expected D Investment | $15M-$25M+ total | DCCC Frontline target; national money incoming |
| Key Issues | Pharma costs, healthcare, tariffs, suburban character | Matches district demographics precisely |
| NJ-3 (Open Seat) | Andy Kim left for Senate; open in 2025 special/general | Potential second NJ pickup opportunity for Democrats |
Key Dynamics in New Jersey's 2026 Federal Races
Tom Kean Jr.: The Marginal Incumbent
Tom Kean Jr. is the son of popular former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean, whose moderate Republicanism defined the party in the state for a generation. The younger Kean has tried to position himself similarly — moderate on some social issues, accessible on local concerns — while maintaining a mostly party-line voting record in the House. He serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has tried to build a bipartisan foreign policy brand.
His 2022 opponent, Tom Malinowski, was a former State Department official who had represented the district since 2019. Malinowski lost narrowly despite strong national fundraising. Democrats in 2026 will need to recruit a similarly formidable candidate with local roots, strong fundraising, and moderate positioning for the suburban professional audience of Morris County. The DCCC has flagged NJ-7 as one of its highest-priority pickups nationally.
Mikie Sherrill Wins the Governorship
Phil Murphy was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. New Jersey's 2025 gubernatorial election produced a Democratic victory, with Mikie Sherrill — a former Navy helicopter pilot and NJ-11 representative since 2019 — winning the governorship. Sherrill had built a reputation as one of the House's most pragmatic moderates, winning and holding a competitive suburban seat through three elections.
Sherrill's governorship enters the 2026 cycle, and her approval ratings and relationship with NJ's suburban electorate will influence downballot races including NJ-7. A popular Democratic governor running on local bread-and-butter issues creates a favorable environment for Democratic House challengers. Her departure from NJ-11 in the House also created a vacancy that was filled in a special election or subsequent general.
Andy Kim's Departure Creates an Opportunity
When Andy Kim ran for and won the Senate in 2024, he vacated NJ-3, a district covering Burlington County and parts of Ocean County in central New Jersey. The district had been competitive when Kim first won it in 2018 against Republican Tom MacArthur, and Kim held it through successive cycles with expanding margins as the district's Burlington County suburbs drifted Democratic.
NJ-3's successor district (post-redistricting configurations may apply) represents a potential second competitive seat for New Jersey in 2026, depending on candidate recruitment, the ultimate district boundaries, and whether a special election was held prior to 2026. Burlington County's suburban character — growing, diverse, college-educated — matches the profile of districts trending Democratic nationally. This is a race to watch as the 2026 cycle develops.
