Utah Presidential & Senate Polling History 2000–2024
Utah is deeply Republican but politically distinctive. Its LDS majority creates a Republican coalition that can fracture when candidates conflict with Mormon values — producing third-party showings, split-ticket voting, and independent Senate challenges unseen in other red states.
Presidential Results 2000–2024
| Year | Race | R% | D% | 3rd% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Presidential | 66.8% | 26.3% | — | R +40.5 | Bush |
| 2004 | Presidential | 71.5% | 26.0% | — | R +45.5 | Bush |
| 2008 | Presidential | 62.6% | 34.4% | — | R +28.2 | McCain |
| 2012 | Presidential | 72.8% | 24.8% | — | R +48.0 | Romney (LDS) |
| 2016 | Presidential | 45.5% | 27.5% | McMullin 21.5% | R +18.0 | Trump |
| 2020 | Presidential | 58.1% | 37.6% | — | R +20.5 | Trump |
| 2024 | Presidential | 58.0% | 37.9% | — | R +20.1 | Trump |
Note: 2012 featured Mitt Romney (LDS, born in Michigan, raised Mormon faith). His 72.8% represents the high-water mark of modern Utah Republican voting.
Key Senate & Statewide Elections
| Year | Race | R% | D/Ind% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Senate | 65.0% | 30.1% | R +34.9 | Hatch (R) |
| 2018 | Senate (Open, Hatch retired) | 62.6% | 27.2% | R +35.4 | Romney (R) |
| 2018 | Senate | 62.5% | 31.6% | R +30.9 | Lee (R) |
| 2022 | Senate (Lee vs. McMullin/D) | 53.0% | McMullin 40.0% | R +13.0 | Lee (R) |
| 2024 | Senate (Romney retired, open seat) | 56.8% | 34.9% | R +21.9 | Banks (R) |
Trend Analysis
Utah's presidential trend is reliably Republican but with interesting variation. The 2012 Romney peak (72.8%) and the 2016 trough (45.5%) frame the range. Both were extraordinary cycles — Romney as a favorite son, and Trump as a candidate the LDS community found deeply problematic. The 2020 and 2024 results at R+20 appear to be the new baseline as Trump normalized within Utah's Republican base.
Salt Lake County has shifted meaningfully. Salt Lake City proper votes about 75% Democratic and the county overall voted for Biden by a small margin in 2020. The tech sector influx — Silicone Slopes is the nickname for Utah's tech corridor — is bringing younger, educated workers who lean Democratic or independent. This demographic shift will accelerate over the next decade.
Mitt Romney's Senate tenure (2019–2025) represented a distinct Utah political type: principled conservative willing to vote against his party on matters of institutional integrity. Romney voted to convict Trump in both impeachment trials. His retirement removed a moderating voice from Republican ranks and represents the end of a specific political tradition in Utah politics.
2026 Outlook
No Utah Senate seats are up in 2026. John Curtis (R) and Mike Lee (R) will hold their seats through 2028 and 2022 cycles respectively (Lee is up 2028). The House races will be the main contests — UT-4 has been competitive in recent cycles.
The longer-term story is demographic. Wasatch Front (Salt Lake-Provo corridor) growth is relentless. If current trends hold, Utah could become a genuine swing states by the 2030s — not through partisan realignment of existing voters, but through the import of a new electorate via in-migration from other states.