Presidential Results 2000–2024
| Year | D% | R% | Winner | Margin | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 47.8% | 47.6% | Gore | D +0.2 | 5,708 votes; one of the closest races nationally |
| 2004 | 49.7% | 49.3% | Kerry | D +0.4 | 11,384 votes; recounted; Kerry holds by margin |
| 2008 | 56.2% | 42.3% | Obama | D +13.9 | Obama wave; Madison + Milwaukee surge |
| 2012 | 52.8% | 46.1% | Obama | D +6.7 | Obama wins; Ryan on ticket didn’t help Romney |
| 2016 | 46.5% | 47.2% | Trump | R +0.8 | 22,748 votes; Clinton skipped WI; rural surge |
| 2020 | 49.5% | 48.8% | Biden | D +0.6 | 20,682 votes; suburban shift returned |
| 2024 | 48.9% | 49.9% | Trump | R +1.0 | Milwaukee turnout drop; rural margin held |
Key Statewide Races 2018–2024
| Year | Race | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Governor | Tony Evers | Scott Walker | D +1.1 | Evers (D) |
| 2022 | Governor | Tony Evers | Tim Michels | D +3.4 | Evers (D) |
| 2022 | Senate | Mandela Barnes | Ron Johnson | R +1.0 | Johnson (R) |
| 2024 | Senate | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde | D +2.0 | Baldwin (D) |
Trend Analysis: America’s Closest Swing State
Wisconsin has been decided by fewer than 1 percentage point in five of the last seven presidential elections. The state is uniquely split: Madison (Dane County) is one of the most liberal cities in America. Milwaukee provides a large Black Democratic vote. But rural Wisconsin — particularly the Fox Valley, the Northwoods, and the farming counties along the Mississippi — has shifted to Republicans by 20-30 points since 2008.
The ticket-splitting tradition: Wisconsin has simultaneously elected Republican governors (Walker, 2010-2018) and re-elected Democratic senators (Feingold, Kohl, Baldwin). Tony Evers won re-election as governor in 2022 while Ron Johnson narrowly survived his Senate majority math. Tammy Baldwin won in 2024 even as Trump carried the state by about 1 point.
The decisive variable is consistently Milwaukee County turnout and suburban Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington (the WOW counties) margins. When Milwaukee underperforms, Wisconsin tips Republican.
2026 Outlook
Tony Evers is term-limited and cannot run again in 2026. The open governor races in a 50/50 state will be one of the most competitive in the nation. Democrats must hold the governor’s office to protect state legislative maps and veto power over any Republican-controlled legislature.
Wisconsin is also a critical state for the 2028 presidential cycle — whoever controls the governorship shapes election administration.