- 65% of Americans believe climate change is primarily human-caused — a figure that has been stable for 5+ years despite partisan debate.
- 62% disapprove of the second US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement — the only policy that consistently polls above 60% disapproval among a broad cross-party coalition.
- The Inflation Reduction Act's 800,000+ clean energy jobs are concentrated in Republican-held districts — creating political cross-pressures for Republican members who voted against the IRA.
- Climate ranks as a top-2 priority for voters under 30, but falls outside the top-5 for voters over 50 — the generational gap on climate urgency is one of the largest of any policy issue.
62% Disapprove: The Paris Agreement Withdrawal
On January 20, 2025 — his first day back in office — President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement for the second time. The first withdrawal in 2017 had made the US the only country on Earth outside the accord. Biden rejoined on his first day in 2021. The second withdrawal was met with immediate condemnation from European allies, a rare public rebuke from international leaders, and polling showing 62% American disapproval.
The disapproval figure is notable because Paris Agreement support crosses some partisan lines: 62% includes significant shares of moderate Republicans, particularly in coastal and suburban areas. The withdrawal framing that resonates most with disapprovers is economic rather than environmental: the US is ceding leadership in clean energy markets to China and Europe while voluntarily removing itself from multilateral discussions about the global energy transition.
Under Paris rules, the formal withdrawal process takes one year from notification. While the process plays out, the US cannot participate as a signatory in global climate negotiations — reducing American influence over rules that will shape global energy and trade policy for decades.
Climate Polling: By Age & Party (2026)
| Issue / Policy | Dem. | Rep. | 18–29 | 65+ | National |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate change primarily human-caused | 92% | 31% | 78% | 58% | 65% |
| Disapprove Paris Agreement withdrawal | 91% | 29% | 74% | 56% | 62% |
| Support clean energy transition | 88% | 27% | 76% | 44% | 58% |
| Support solar tax incentives | 93% | 54% | 81% | 66% | 72% |
| Prioritize renewables over fossil fuels | 91% | 38% | 79% | 57% | 67% |
| Support expanding nuclear energy | 38% | 62% | 47% | 41% | 47% |
Sources: Pew Research Center 2026, Gallup 2025, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Figures are approximate national averages.
IRA: 800,000+ Jobs and the Rollback Fight
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 2022, committed $369 billion to clean energy investment over 10 years. The Clean Investment Monitor tracked over 800,000 clean energy jobs created or sustained in its first three years — in manufacturing, construction, installation, and operations. These jobs are geographically concentrated in congressional districts that matter politically.
The IRA's job map is a political problem for Republican repeal efforts. Major IRA-funded investments include:
- Georgia: Multiple EV battery plant investments in the Columbus and Savannah corridors, totaling billions in factory investment. Georgia Republican legislators face constituent pressure to protect these facilities.
- Texas: Solar panel manufacturing and wind energy installation — Texas is the largest wind energy producer in the US. West Texas Republican districts are economically dependent on wind energy jobs and royalties.
- Michigan, Ohio, Indiana: EV and battery supply chain investment throughout the industrial Midwest. Autoworker-heavy districts that receive IRA-subsidized EV manufacturing investment are in swing-district territory.
- South Carolina, North Carolina: Multiple battery and EV investments in Republican-held congressional seats.
The result: 18 Republican House members signed a letter to House leadership in 2025 asking that clean energy tax credits be preserved in the reconciliation bill. The IRA rollback effort has stalled partly because a clean IRA repeal would eliminate jobs in Republican districts that voted for Trump.
Extreme Weather: $1 Billion Disaster Frequency Rising
NOAA tracks US weather and climate disasters costing $1 billion or more. The trend line has steepened dramatically: in the 1980s, the US averaged 3 billion-dollar weather events per year. In 2023, there were 28 such events — a record at the time. 2024 exceeded it. The cumulative cost of extreme weather events has reached hundreds of billions of dollars annually, with hurricane, wildfire, flood, and heat event damage compounding.
The political impact of extreme weather operates at two levels. At the national level, polling shows that Americans who personally experience extreme weather events shift measurably toward believing climate change is real and human-caused. At the local and state level, governors and mayors who face disaster recovery costs have increasing incentive to advocate for climate adaptation regardless of party, because the insurance, infrastructure, and emergency response costs are landing on state and local budgets.
Florida is the most striking example: despite Republican state leadership that has banned "climate change" from official state documents, the state faces catastrophic property insurance market collapse, with major insurers exiting the market entirely due to hurricane and flood risk. Homeowners are facing 40-200% insurance premium increases or the inability to obtain coverage at all — a concrete, immediate economic harm that voters experience directly.
2026 Electoral Dynamics
Young Voter Priority
Voters aged 18-29 rank climate as a top-two concern — a crucial Democratic base group. Any mobilization deficit among young voters has downstream effects in competitive districts. 78% of young voters say climate change is human-caused, and 76% support a clean energy transition. Candidates who credibly address climate concerns can boost youth turnout in suburban college-educated districts.
Energy Cost Counterframe
Republicans have effectively framed climate policy around energy costs. In an inflationary environment, "the green transition raises your utility and gas bills" resonates with cost-conscious voters regardless of climate views. The question for Democrats: can the IRA's 800,000+ jobs and lower solar/wind electricity costs become a credible economic counter-narrative in the specific districts where the races are decided?
The IRA Jobs Map
Clean energy investments generated by the IRA are concentrated in specific congressional districts — many of them Republican-held. In competitive House and Senate races in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Texas, IRA-funded jobs are a tangible local economic argument. Democrats can run on protecting those jobs; Republicans who vote to repeal face constituent backlash from workers at those facilities.
US Climate Policy: A Timeline of Commitments and Reversals
The United States has an unusual history of international climate commitments: signing agreements under one administration, then withdrawing under the next. The pattern creates real damage to US credibility in multilateral climate negotiations and cedes leadership in global clean energy markets to China and the EU.
- 1997: Kyoto Protocol signed by Clinton, but never ratified by the Senate (Senate voted 95-0 against ratification in advance).
- 2015: Paris Agreement signed by Obama at COP21. 195 countries agreed to limit warming to 1.5–2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
- 2017: Trump announces Paris withdrawal on June 1. Formal withdrawal process takes 4 years; US technically still a party until November 2020.
- 2021: Biden rejoins Paris Agreement on day one, January 20.
- 2022: Inflation Reduction Act signed August 16 — $369B in clean energy investment, the largest climate legislation in US history.
- 2025: Trump withdraws from Paris Agreement again on January 20. Formal withdrawal takes one year from notification.
- 2025–2026: Congressional Republicans pursue partial IRA rollback. 18 Republican House members sign letter asking leadership to preserve clean energy tax credits in their districts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Trump do to climate policy in his second term?
Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement on January 20, 2025 — his second withdrawal after Biden rejoined in 2021. 62% of Americans disapprove of the withdrawal. He also suspended offshore wind permits, reversed Biden EV mandates, signed “drill baby drill” executive orders, directed EPA rollbacks, and worked to claw back IRA clean energy funding. Republican members in solar/wind-heavy districts have complicated full IRA repeal.
What is the IRA’s climate and jobs impact?
The IRA committed $369B over 10 years to clean energy through tax credits. The Clean Investment Monitor counted 800,000+ clean energy jobs created in its first three years. Independent analyses project 40% US emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. The IRA’s job map is concentrated in Republican-held congressional districts, making full repeal politically complicated for House Republicans.
How do Americans view climate change in 2026?
65% say climate change is primarily human-caused (Pew 2026). 67% prioritize renewables over fossil fuels. 72% support solar incentives. 62% disapprove of the Paris Agreement withdrawal. The issue has a strong partisan and generational divide: young voters overwhelmingly prioritize climate; older and rural Republican voters are much less likely to. Energy cost framing reduces partisan gaps; environmental protection framing increases them.
What is the Paris Agreement and why does US withdrawal matter?
The Paris Agreement (2015) is a UN framework treaty in which 195 countries agreed to limit global warming to 1.5–2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. US withdrawal matters because: (1) the US is historically the world’s second-largest emitter; (2) the US loses its seat in multilateral climate negotiations; (3) the withdrawal signals policy instability to clean energy investors. The EU and China have stepped into the leadership vacuum, shaping global clean energy trade rules that American companies must follow regardless of whether the US is at the table.
How do Trump’s tariffs affect clean energy costs?
Trump’s 2025 tariffs on solar panel imports from Southeast Asia and Chinese goods have increased solar installation costs — working directly against clean energy expansion at the same time the administration rolls back IRA tax credits. Solar panel costs had fallen 90% over the previous decade; tariffs on panels manufactured in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia reversed some of those gains. See the full analysis of tariff polling and public opinion.
