- Right track / wrong track: 36% right track, 56% wrong track — highest "wrong track" since post-pandemic inflation peak of 2022
- 71% are worried about inflation driven by tariffs, up from 42% in January 2025 before broad tariff announcements
- Q1 2026 GDP: −0.3% contraction — first negative quarter since 2022. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell 22 points Jan–Apr 2026
- Only 33% rate the economy as "good" or "excellent" — down from 41% in late 2024, before the full tariff impact was felt
- Economic pessimism is the #1 driver of the generic ballot shift from D+1.2 at inauguration to D+6.2 by April 2026
Right Track / Wrong Track Trend
Economic Concerns by Group
| Economic Concern (% worried) | All Adults | Republicans | Independents | Democrats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation / rising prices | 71% | 61% | 73% | 78% |
| Tariff impact on cost of goods | 58% | 28% | 62% | 82% |
| Recession fears | 52% | 22% | 55% | 77% |
| Stock market decline | 44% | 32% | 46% | 54% |
| Job security / layoffs | 39% | 21% | 41% | 53% |
| Housing affordability | 64% | 50% | 66% | 74% |
| Federal debt/deficit | 57% | 71% | 55% | 48% |
GDP Outlook & Recession Signals
GDP Growth Forecasts
Q1 2026 GDP growth revised to 1.2% annualized, down from 2.8% in Q3 2025. Goldman Sachs raised recession probability to 35% in April 2026, citing tariff drag and slowing consumer spending. The Fed has held rates steady amid conflicting inflation and growth signals.
Consumer Sentiment Collapse
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 68.1 in April 2026, down from 90.4 in January 2025 — a 22-point drop in 15 months. The last time sentiment fell this fast was February–April 2020. Expectations component dropped more than current conditions, signaling forward-looking pessimism.
Historical Midterm Pattern
Every midterm where wrong track exceeded 55% in the spring of the election year produced significant opposition party gains. 2010: wrong track 62%, R+63 seats. 2018: wrong track 57%, D+41 seats. 2026 is on the same trajectory with wrong track at 56% in April.
