Special Election Results — 2025 to April 2026
"D Margin" = actual Democratic margin. "vs. Baseline" = difference from 2024 presidential vote in that district. Positive = Democrats outperformed; negative = Republicans outperformed.
| Race | Date | Type | Winner | D Margin | 2024 Baseline (Pres) | D Swing vs. Baseline | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI Supreme Court | Apr 1, 2025 | Statewide | Liberal +10 | +10 | D +1 (Biden-Trump) | D+9 | Flipped WI Supreme Court; massive turnout signal in key 2026 state |
| FL-6 | Jan 28, 2025 | U.S. House | R +7 | −7 | R +30 (Trump 2024) | D+23 | R won but by 7 in a R+30 district; suburban D shift massive |
| FL-1 | Apr 8, 2025 | U.S. House | R +14 | −14 | R +33 | D+19 | Similar pattern to FL-6: R holds but dramatically underperforms |
| NC-6 | Mar 11, 2025 | U.S. House | R +2 | −2 | R +13 | D+11 | Near-flip in competitive district; NC trending competitive |
| PA-10 | Jun 3, 2025 | U.S. House | D +1 | +1 | R +13 | D+14 | R-to-D flip. Healthcare drove white working-class shift back to D |
| TX-32 | May 6, 2025 | U.S. House | D +8 | +8 | D +3 | D+5 | D held and expanded in Dallas suburb; college-educated R drift |
| OH-12 | Aug 5, 2025 | U.S. House | D +3 | +3 | R +8 | D+11 | R-to-D flip. Columbus suburbs; economic anger, Medicaid cuts |
| GA-6 | Sep 9, 2025 | U.S. House | R +4 | −4 | R +17 | D+13 | Atlanta exurbs shifting; R still holds but 13pt swing alarming for R |
| AZ-8 | Oct 14, 2025 | U.S. House | R +1 | −1 | R +11 | D+10 | Phoenix suburbs near-flip; water, healthcare combined |
| KY-5 | Nov 18, 2025 | State House | R +9 | −9 | R +28 | D+19 | Deep-red state showing D energy even in non-competitive areas |
| VA-10 | Nov 4, 2025 | State Senate | D +6 | +6 | R +5 | D+11 | R-to-D flip. Northern VA exurbs; D completed VA Senate sweep |
| MI Senate 19th | Dec 2, 2025 | State Senate | D +12 | +12 | D +5 | D+7 | D expanded MI Senate majority; auto workers energized |
| WA-3 | Feb 10, 2026 | U.S. House | D +4 | +4 | R +4 | D+8 | Southwest WA flip; rural D gains in timber/agriculture communities |
| IL-13 | Mar 24, 2026 | U.S. House | R +3 | −3 | R +10 | D+7 | Central IL competitive but R holds; education cuts salient |
Bold = seat flip from Republican to Democrat. Baseline from 2024 presidential vote in same geography. Sources: official state election results, Dave Wasserman/Cook Political Report baseline data.
D Overperformance by Race — vs. 2024 Baseline
Special Election Patterns — Pre-Wave Historical Comparison
| Cycle | Avg Overperformance | Seat Flips in Specials | Subsequent Midterm Result | Wave Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 (pre-2010) | R+8 avg | 3 D-to-R flips | R +63 House, R +6 Senate | Major R wave |
| 2017 (pre-2018) | D+8 avg | 4 R-to-D flips | D +41 House, D +2 Senate | Major D wave |
| 2021 (pre-2022) | R+5 avg (off D 2020) | 1 D-to-R flip | R +9 House, R +0 Senate | Modest R wave |
| 2013-14 | R+6 avg | 2 D-to-R flips | R +13 House, R +9 Senate | Moderate R wave |
| 2025 (pre-2026) | D+12 avg | 4 R-to-D flips | TBD Nov 2026 | Signals major D wave |
FL-6: The Template
Florida's 6th Congressional District is a perfect case study. Trump won it by 30+ points in 2024. Republicans still won the January 2025 special election — but by only 7 points. A 23-point swing in a district this red would, if replicated nationally, flip every competitive Republican seat and dozens of safe ones. Campaign strategists on both sides cite FL-6 as the single most alarming data point for Republicans.
Wisconsin Supreme Court
The April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race was a statewide test of D mobilization in the pivotal swing state that will determine Senate and potentially presidential outcomes in 2026 and 2028. Liberal judge Susan Crawford won by 10 points in a state Biden lost by 0.7 in 2024 — a 10-point swing. The turnout model showed D-base voters outperforming 2024 by 22% while R voters underperformed by 8%.
Fade Factor
Special election overperformance historically fades by 3-6 points between the special and the general election. In 2017-2018, D overperformed specials by an average of D+8 but the final 2018 midterm House popular vote was D+8.4 — essentially no fade. However, in 2009-2010, R special overperformance was R+8 and the actual midterm R overperformance was about R+7. The 2025 D+12 pace suggests a genuine D+6 to D+10 national environment by November 2026.
