Kansas Presidential & Senate Polling History 2000–2024
Kansas has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the country for over five decades. Yet its 2022 abortion referendum delivered a national shock, showing that even deep-red electorates contain multitudes.
Presidential Results 2000–2024
| Year | Race | R% | D% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Presidential | 58.0% | 37.2% | R +20.8 | Bush |
| 2004 | Presidential | 62.0% | 36.6% | R +25.4 | Bush |
| 2008 | Presidential | 56.6% | 41.7% | R +14.9 | McCain |
| 2012 | Presidential | 59.7% | 38.0% | R +21.7 | Romney |
| 2016 | Presidential | 56.7% | 36.1% | R +20.6 | Trump |
| 2020 | Presidential | 56.2% | 41.5% | R +14.7 | Trump |
| 2024 | Presidential | 59.7% | 37.0% | R +22.7 | Trump |
Key Senate & Statewide Elections
| Year | Race | R% | D% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Senate | 52.7% | — | R +10.8 | Roberts (R) |
| 2016 | Senate | 64.1% | 31.4% | R +32.7 | Moran (R) |
| 2020 | Senate | 53.0% | 41.5% | R +11.5 | Marshall (R) |
| 2022 | Abortion Referendum (Value Them Both) | 41.0% | 59.0% | No +18.0 | No (keep rights) |
| 2022 | Governor | 47.7% | 49.9% | D +2.2 | Kelly (D) |
Trend Analysis
Kansas is solidly Republican at the presidential level and has been for over 50 years. Trump's margins ranged from R+14.7 in 2020 to R+22.7 in 2024 — a cycle-by-cycle variation driven more by national headwinds than any genuine competitiveness.
However, Kansas contains a notable contradiction: its suburban areas, particularly Johnson County (Kansas City suburbs), have trended Democratic at the state level even as they continue supporting Republican presidential candidates. Governor Laura Kelly (D) won reelection in 2022 by defeating a far-right Republican challenger, carrying Johnson County and winning on economic moderation themes.
The 2022 abortion referendum was the clearest signal that Kansas voters, even in a red state, are not monolithic. A 59-41 rejection of removing abortion polling surprised national observers and energized Democratic organizing in the state. That energy helped Kelly hold the governorship but has not translated to federal races.
2026 Outlook
Senator Jerry Moran (R) faces reelection in 2026. Moran has been a relatively low-profile Senator who avoids hard-right positioning, making him difficult to challenge from either direction. Kansas is unlikely to be competitive at the Senate level absent a major national Democratic wave.
The governor races is the more interesting statewide contest. Laura Kelly (D) is term-limited, meaning an open seat in 2026. Republicans will seek to reclaim the governorship after losing it in 2018 and 2022. Johnson County and the abortion issue will again be decisive factors.