Nebraska Presidential & Senate Polling History 2000–2024
Nebraska is one of two states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. The statewide result is reliably Republican — but NE-2 (Omaha) has delivered Democratic electoral votes in 2008 and 2020, making it a minor but real battleground.
Presidential Results 2000–2024 (Statewide)
| Year | Race | R% | D% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Presidential | 62.2% | 33.3% | R +28.9 | Bush |
| 2004 | Presidential | 65.9% | 32.7% | R +33.2 | Bush |
| 2008 | Presidential | 56.5% | 41.6% | R +14.9 | McCain (NE-2 → Obama) |
| 2012 | Presidential | 59.8% | 38.0% | R +21.8 | Romney |
| 2016 | Presidential | 58.8% | 33.7% | R +25.1 | Trump |
| 2020 | Presidential | 58.5% | 39.2% | R +19.3 | Trump (NE-2 → Biden) |
| 2024 | Presidential | 59.6% | 37.8% | R +21.8 | Trump (NE-2 → Harris) |
NE-2 (Omaha) District Results
| Year | Race | R% | D% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | NE-2 Presidential | 49.0% | 49.9% | D +0.9 | Obama (+1 EV) |
| 2012 | NE-2 Presidential | 52.5% | 46.0% | R +6.5 | Romney |
| 2016 | NE-2 Presidential | 48.9% | 44.9% | R +2.0 | Trump |
| 2020 | NE-2 Presidential | 45.9% | 52.2% | D +6.3 | Biden (+1 EV) |
| 2024 | NE-2 Presidential | 48.2% | 49.6% | D +1.4 | Harris (+1 EV) |
Key Senate Elections
| Year | Race | R% | D% | Margin | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Senate | 56.7% | 39.9% | R +16.8 | Nelson (R) |
| 2014 | Senate (Open) | 57.2% | 40.3% | R +16.9 | Sasse (R) |
| 2018 | Senate | 54.2% | 41.5% | R +12.7 | Fischer (R) |
| 2024 | Senate | 59.5% | 37.7% | R +21.8 | Fischer (R) |
Trend Analysis
Nebraska's statewide presidential trend is stable deep-red, ranging from R+19 to R+33 over six cycles. The state is not trending Democratic at the macro level. However, NE-2 is a genuine micro-battleground that will continue to be contested in close national elections where a single electoral vote could matter.
The geographic split is stark: Omaha (Douglas County) is a growing, diverse metro with college-educated suburban voters and a significant minority population. The rest of Nebraska — the Sandhills, the Platte River Valley, western agricultural counties — are among the most Republican in the country. NE-1 (Lincoln and the east) is competitive at the state level but solidly R at the presidential level.
Republicans drew new NE-2 congressional lines after 2020 specifically to weaken Democratic presidential prospects in the district. Despite those efforts, Harris still won NE-2 in 2024 by 1.4 points — a closer margin than Biden's 6.3 point win, but still enough to capture one electoral vote.
2026 Outlook
No Nebraska Senate seats are up in 2026. The state's U.S. House races will be the main federal contests. NE-2 is the only competitive district — Democrats have a realistic shot at the congressional seat depending on the national environment.
Nebraska's winner-take-all debate resurfaced in 2024 when Republicans in the state legislature again proposed switching to a full winner-take-all system, which would have eliminated NE-2's Democratic electoral vote. The effort narrowly failed. The debate will likely recur ahead of 2028.