Vermont Politics 2026: One of the Bluest States
No Senate majority math in 2026 · Sanders (I) won 2024, up 2030 · Welch (D) won 2022, up 2028 · Governor race on the ballot
Vermont’s Senate Delegation — At a Glance
Recent Vermont Federal Election Results
Vermont’s Political Landscape in 2026
Independent Senator, Democratic Caucus
Bernie Sanders has represented Vermont in Congress for over three decades — first in the House (1991–2006), then in the Senate (2007–present). He identifies as a democratic socialist and runs as an Independent, but has caucused with Senate Democrats throughout his Senate tenure, receiving committee assignments accordingly. In 2024, Sanders won his fourth Senate term with over 70% of the vote. He is expected to remain active on healthcare (Medicare for All advocacy), income inequality, and climate issues. His influence on the national Democratic Party has been substantial: the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns he ran moved the party significantly left on economic policy, contributing to provisions ultimately included in the ACA expansion and the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Moderate Republican Anomaly
Vermont’s Republican governor Phil Scott is one of the most vivid examples in American politics of the split between state-level and federal-level partisanship. Vermont votes D+28 in presidential elections, yet Scott has won the governorship by 30+ points, including in years when the state voted simultaneously for Democratic senators and presidential candidates. Scott achieved this by positioning himself explicitly against Trump: he refused to endorse Trump in 2016 and 2020, supported impeachment, and built a brand as a pragmatic, non-ideological manager focused on Vermont issues. His ability to attract Democratic crossover votes in a state with no competitive party primaries is a case study in how personal brand can transcend partisan identity at the state level. The 2026 gubernatorial race will test whether his coalition holds.
Becca Balint: Vermont’s Progressive House Voice
Becca Balint became Vermont’s first-ever female and first-ever openly gay member of Congress when she won the at-large House majority in 2022. She is a progressive Democrat aligned closely with the Sanders wing of the party on economic policy. Vermont’s at-large House seat is essentially a safe Democratic seat in federal elections; the real competition for it, if any, comes through Democratic primaries rather than general elections. Balint’s 2026 re-election is expected to be comfortable, continuing Vermont’s tradition of sending progressive voices to Congress while simultaneously electing moderate Republicans to the governorship — a political duality that reflects Vermont’s unique small-state, low-population political culture.
