The National Debt: $36 Trillion and Growing
The US national debt surpassed $36 trillion in 2025. Both parties have contributed to its growth over decades. Here is what the debt is, who holds it, and why it matters0;"> The US national debt surpassed $36 trillion in 2025. Both parties have contributed to its growth over decades. Here is what the debt is, who holds it, and why it matters for interest rates and the economy.
- US national debt exceeds $36 trillion (2026) — approximately 123% of GDP; interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion per year, making them the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget
- Debt ≠ deficit: the deficit is the gap between revenue and spending in a single year; the debt is the accumulated total of all past deficits minus surpluses
- The debt is held by Social Security (~$7T), the Federal Reserve (~$5T), foreign governments (Japan and China each hold ~$1T+), and private investors (~$18T)
- No major US fiscal plan has reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio in decades; Trump's tax cut extensions (2025) are projected to add $4-5 trillion over 10 years per the CBO
What Is the National Debt?
The national debt is the total accumulated amount the federal government owes to its creditors. It represents the sum of every annual deficit the government has run since its founding — minus any surpluses — plus accumulated interest. The debt grows whenever the government spends more in a year than it collects in taxes and other revenue.
The debt is divided into two components. Debt held by the public (roughly $28+ trillion) is owed to external parties: US individuals, US institutions like pension funds and banks, foreign governments and investors, and the Federal Reserve. Intragovernmental debt (roughly $7-8 trillion) represents money the Treasury has borrowed from government trust funds, primarily the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
The intragovernmental debt is a commitment the government has made to itself: when Social Security taxes exceed Social Security benefit payments, the surplus is "invested" in Treasury securities, creating an obligation for the Treasury to repay that money with interest when benefits exceed contributions. This day has already arrived for Social Security, as demographics have shifted the program from surplus to deficit.
Who Caused the Debt? (Both Parties)
The national debt has grown under both Republican and Democratic administrations. Major contributors since 2000 include:
Bush era (2001-2009): The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, combined with the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the 2008-2009 financial crisis recession, added roughly $6 trillion to the debt. The Bush years turned the budget surpluses of the late Clinton era into large deficits.
Obama era (2009-2017): The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (stimulus), Affordable Care Act implementation, ongoing war spending, and slow economic recovery added roughly $9 trillion. Much of the early-term spending was emergency response to the financial crisis.
Trump first term (2017-2021): The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced revenues by roughly $1.5 trillion over 10 years, and COVID-19 relief spending added several trillion in 2020 alone. The debt grew by approximately $7-8 trillion.
Biden era (2021-2025): Additional COVID relief, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and student loan policies added roughly $5-6 trillion. Inflation temporarily increased nominal revenues but also nominal spending.
| Era | President | Debt Added | Debt at End | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993–2001 | Clinton | ~+$1.4T | ~$5.7T | PAYGO rules + tech boom revenues; surpluses 1998–2001 |
| 2001–2009 | Bush | ~+$6.1T | ~$11.9T | 2001+2003 tax cuts; Iraq/Afghanistan wars; 2008 financial crisis |
| 2009–2017 | Obama | ~+$8.0T | ~$19.9T | ARRA stimulus; ACA; slow post-crisis recovery; extended Bush tax cuts |
| 2017–2021 | Trump 1 | ~+$7.8T | ~$27.8T | TCJA tax cuts (-$1.5T/decade); COVID relief (-$3T+ in 2020) |
| 2021–2025 | Biden | ~+$8.3T | ~$36T | ARP; Infrastructure; IRA; student loan relief; inflation spending |
| 2025+ | Trump 2 | +$3–4T projected | $40T+ projected | TCJA extension; reconciliation package; interest compounding |
| Interest alone | All eras | $1T+/year (2024) | Growing | Now larger than defense budget; CBO projects $1.7–2T/year by 2034 |
The Debt Ceiling vs. the National Debt
National Debt
The total accumulated obligation the government has already incurred through legislation already passed — spending already authorized and tax cuts already enacted. Refusing to pay this debt would constitute a default on existing obligations. The national debt reflects decisions made over decades by both parties.
Debt Ceiling
A statutory limit on how much the Treasury can borrow. When the debt reaches the ceiling, the Treasury cannot issue new borrowing to pay bills unless Congress raises or suspends the ceiling. The debt ceiling does not authorize new spending — it prevents the government from paying for spending already authorized. Critics argue it is a dysfunctional mechanism that creates recurring crises without controlling spending.
Why the Debt Matters: Interest Payments and Economic Impact
The most direct consequence of the national debt is the interest it costs. The federal government paid over $1 trillion in net interest on the debt in fiscal year 2024 — more than the defense budget for the first time in modern history. The Congressional Budget Office projects interest payments will reach $1.7-2 trillion annually within a decade under current policies.
Interest payments are mandatory spending — they cannot be cut without defaulting on US obligations. This means a larger share of the federal budget is consumed by interest costs that provide no government services, displacing potential spending on defense, infrastructure, health care, or other priorities.
Crowding out: When the government borrows heavily, it competes with private businesses for available capital in credit markets. Higher government borrowing can push interest rates up for private borrowers — raising mortgage rates, business loan rates, and corporate bond yields. This can slow private investment and economic growth.
Dollar reserve status: One reason the US has been able to carry a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% without a crisis is the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Global demand for US Treasuries as the world's safest store of value keeps yields lower than comparable debt levels would produce in other countries. A loss of reserve currency status — which some economists consider a long-term risk — would significantly increase the cost of US borrowing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Could the US ever default on its debt?
A full default on US Treasury debt is considered extremely unlikely because the government can always print money to repay dollar-denominated obligations, though this would cause inflation. The more realistic risk is a technical default caused by failure to raise the debt ceiling in time — which would cause the Treasury to be unable to make scheduled payments even though the government is still solvent. In 2023, the US came within days of a technical default before Congress passed a debt ceiling suspension. Credit rating agency Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+ in 2023, citing debt ceiling dysfunction and rising fiscal concerns.
How does the debt affect Social Security and Medicare?
Social Security and Medicare together account for roughly 40% of federal spending and are the primary drivers of long-term debt projections. Both programs run structural deficits as the population ages and the ratio of workers to beneficiaries declines. The Social Security trust fund is projected to be depleted around 2033, at which point benefits would need to be cut by roughly 25% unless Congress acts. Medicare faces similar long-term funding pressures. Addressing the national debt in any serious way requires either reforming these programs, raising taxes substantially, or some combination of both.
What impact will the Republican reconciliation bill have on the debt?
The Republican reconciliation package being pursued in 2025-2026 focuses primarily on extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions set to expire at the end of 2025. The CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation have estimated that extending these provisions without offsetting spending cuts or revenue increases would add approximately $3-4 trillion to the national debt over 10 years. Republicans have proposed spending cuts in Medicaid, SNAP, and other programs to partially offset the cost, but the total fiscal impact is projected to increase the deficit and accelerate debt growth.
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