- Southwest border encounters fell 95% from the December 2023 peak of 302,000 per month to approximately 15,000 per month by March 2026 — the lowest level in over a decade.
- The Trump administration invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to rapidly deport Venezuelan nationals; 47+ federal court injunctions have blocked various immigration executive orders.
- 280+ miles of wall have been announced or begun in 2025–26, though much of the construction replaces existing lower-standard barriers rather than covering new terrain.
- Despite the border encounter reduction, immigration polling shows the issue has dropped as a top voter concern precisely because the crisis metrics have improved — potentially reducing its salience as a Republican electoral advantage.
Southwest Border Encounters by Month
| Period | Monthly Encounters | Change | Key Policy Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2023 (peak) | 302,000 | — | Record high under Biden |
| Jun 2024 | 131,000 | -57% from peak | Biden executive actions + Mexico cooperation |
| Nov 2024 | 54,000 | -82% from peak | Pre-election enforcement surge |
| Feb 2025 (post-inauguration) | 28,000 | -91% from peak | Trump Day 1 EOs, military deployment |
| Jan 2026 | ~18,000 | -94% from peak | Deportation flights, Remain in Mexico |
| Mar 2026 (est.) | ~15,000 | -95% from peak | Alien Enemies Act invoked, court battles |
The Alien Enemies Act Controversy
Invoking a 226-year-old wartime statute to conduct deportations without immigration court proceedings is the administration's most legally aggressive border enforcement tactic. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 has been used only three times in U.S. history: during the War of 1812, World War I, and World War II (the last use associated with Japanese American internment). The Trump administration's application to deport Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang members represents an unprecedented peacetime use.
Federal judges in multiple districts have issued temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions blocking the deportation flights, finding that the statutory conditions — a declared war or invasion by a foreign nation — are not met by gang activity. The administration has challenged these rulings as improper interference with executive authority over immigration and national security. The cases are moving rapidly through the circuit courts toward a Supreme Court polling determination expected by late 2026.
Wall Construction: Substance vs. Politics
The resumed border wall construction is more complex than campaign-trail descriptions suggest. Much of the announced mileage represents replacement of older, lower vehicle barriers with taller steel bollard fencing — improvements to existing coverage rather than new miles of protected border. Genuinely unprotected terrain — mountain passes, the Rio Grande corridor, private land — remains largely unchanged because of physical impossibility, legal constraints on private property condemnation, and environmental regulations that require lengthy permitting processes even for projects with presidential priority.
The administration has used emergency declarations to bypass some environmental reviews and has exercised eminent domain powers to acquire private land in Texas, generating significant legal disputes and community opposition. The total cost of the current construction program is projected at $25-35 billion for the stated 500-mile goal, significantly exceeding per-mile costs from the first Trump term.
ABC/Ipsos (March 2026): 52% approve of Trump's overall immigration handling, including 18% of Democrats. 61% support deporting people who entered illegally, though 54% want exceptions for long-term residents and those with U.S.-born children. The issue has shifted from a net negative for Democrats to a split issue driven by the encounter decline.
The administration faces over 47 active court injunctions on immigration executive orders as of April 2026. Key circuits (9th, D.C.) have blocked multiple deportation programs. The Supreme Court has ruled on emergency applications from both sides, with mixed results. The overall legal framework for the administration's immigration enforcement remains contested and unsettled.
ICE and CBP deportation flights have increased significantly since January 2025. The administration claims 1+ million deportations/removals in the first year — a figure that includes voluntary returns and expedited removals not typically counted as formal deportations. Independent tracking by migration researchers estimates 350,000-500,000 formal removals in the 12-month period.
