American support for NATO has declined measurably since Trump's return to the White House. The post-Ukraine war surge that pushed support to 77% has faded. Republican backing has dropped most sharply, from 72% to 54%. The alliance still commands a two-thirds majority — but the trend line is downward, and the political dynamics driving it are entrenched.
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drove U.S. support for NATO from 69% to 77% in under twelve months — the largest single-year surge in alliance support since its founding.
- That surge has partially reversed: Republican support for NATO has fallen from 72% (early 2023) to approximately 55% in 2026 polling, as Trump skepticism hardened into mainstream GOP foreign policy orthodoxy.
- The partisan gap in NATO support (D+30 or more) is now the largest ever recorded for any major U.S. alliance commitment, raising structural questions about alliance governance under future administrations of either party.
- Americans broadly agree that allies should spend more on defense — but U.S. withdrawal from the alliance as leverage polls at under 25% even among Republicans, suggesting the public wants reform of NATO, not exit from it.
- U.S. credibility concerns are now measurable in European polling: trust in U.S. reliability as an ally has fallen 20–30 points in Germany, France, and the Nordic states since 2017, accelerating European strategic autonomy discussions.
The Ukraine Surge and Its Reversal
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drove the largest single-year surge in NATO support since the alliance's founding — pushing overall American backing from 69% to 77% in under twelve months. The bipartisan nature of the Ukraine-driven rally was notable: even among Republicans, support for NATO commitments reached 72% in early 2023 as images of a land war in Europe revived Cold War-era alliance sentiment.
That surge has mostly reversed. Overall support has dropped from 77% to 68% — a 9-point decline over roughly three years. The sharpest movement has been among Republican voters, where NATO backing has fallen 18 points — from 72% to 54% — largely tracking the Trump administration's rhetorical posture toward NATO members who do not meet the 2% GDP defense spending target. Among Democrats, support has actually risen slightly, from 82% to 84%, creating an unusual pattern where foreign policy alignment is now significantly more polarized than it was during the Cold War period.
NATO Support by Party and Demographic (2026)
The Defense Spending Dispute
Trump's insistence that NATO members meet the 2% GDP defense spending target — and his implication that the US might not defend members who fail to do so — has resonated differently across the American public. Among those who identify as NATO supporters, 61% agree that European members should spend more on their own defense. This creates a political space where even pro-NATO Americans feel the cost-sharing grievance is legitimate, even if they reject the idea of conditional alliance commitments.
For 2026, NATO is not a primary issue — it ranks 12th or lower on voter priority lists. But it feeds into a broader foreign policy competence narrative. Voters who are anxious about global instability — a group that overlaps significantly with college-educated suburban voters in competitive districts — tend to rate NATO skepticism negatively when combined with other foreign policy concerns. Related: NATO and Ukraine: US Support Trends.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of Americans support NATO in 2026?
68% favor US NATO membership and commitments — down from 77% at the 2022-2023 peak. The decline is driven primarily by Republicans, where support dropped from 72% to 54%. Democrats remain strongly pro-NATO at 84%.
How has Trump affected American public opinion on NATO?
Republican NATO support dropped 18 points since 2022, tracking the Trump administration's rhetorical skepticism. Independent support is more stable at 67-70%. The effect appears to be a partisan Trump-driven shift rather than a broad public reorientation.
Does NATO skepticism affect the 2026 election?
NATO ranks 12th or lower on voter priority lists and is not a decisive campaign issue. But it feeds into foreign policy competence assessments among college-educated suburban voters in competitive districts — where it correlates negatively with Trump approval.
