- 43% overall approval (April 2026 avg); 53% disapproval — compare Obama 47% at 15 months, Biden 41% at 15 months; both lost House seats at next midterm
- Largest partisan splits: 87% R / 7% D / 38% Independent — independent disapproval at 62% is the most politically consequential number for 2026
- 11-point gender gap: men 49% approve, women 38% — among the widest in modern presidential polling; college-educated women disapprove at 70%+
- Racial breakdown: White 50%, Hispanic 38% (up from 32% in 2020, driven by non-college Hispanic men), Black 17%; education split: college+ 35%, non-college 53%
Trump Approval by Demographic Group vs. Obama and Biden at 15 Months
Comparison is at the same point in each presidency (approximately 15 months in, March/April of midterm year). All figures are net approval (approve minus disapprove) or straight approve % where indicated. Source: Polling averages (Gallup, AP-NORC, PRRI).
| Demographic Group | Trump Apr 2026 | Obama Mar 2010 | Biden Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 43% | 47% | 41% |
| Republicans | 87% | 14% | 11% |
| Democrats | 7% | 81% | 78% |
| Independents | 38% | 44% | 36% |
| White voters | 50% | 41% | 38% |
| Black voters | 17% | 92% | 76% |
| Hispanic voters | 38% | 67% | 50% |
| Asian voters | 30% | 62% | 47% |
| Men | 49% | 44% | 39% |
| Women | 38% | 50% | 44% |
| College graduates | 35% | 49% | 38% |
| Non-college | 53% | 46% | 44% |
| Ages 18–29 | 36% | 57% | 40% |
| Ages 30–44 | 41% | 48% | 39% |
| Ages 45–64 | 44% | 46% | 41% |
| Ages 65+ | 47% | 44% | 43% |
The Education Polarization Signal
The 18-point gap between college graduates (35% approval) and non-college voters (53% approval) is among the largest education polarization numbers in modern polling. This gap directly maps onto the competitive House district landscape: the most competitive districts in 2026 are disproportionately suburban, college-educated communities where Trump's 35% approval creates structural disadvantage for Republican incumbents. Districts like NY-17, CO-8, CA-45, and VA-10 are all college-heavy suburban areas where Trump's approval would be well below 35% — potentially in the high-20s range.
The Hispanic Approval Shift
Trump's 38% Hispanic approval is significantly above his 32% 2020 exit poll performance, continuing the rightward drift among Hispanic voters that began in 2020. The shift is primarily driven by Hispanic men (estimated at 44% approval) while Hispanic women remain significantly more Democratic-leaning (32% approval). The geographic dimension matters: Hispanic approval of Trump is higher in Florida (44%) and Texas-border areas (46%) than in California (28%) or New York City metro (22%). This variation makes state-level analysis more important than national Hispanic approval numbers for predicting electoral outcomes in specific races.
What the 43% Overall Number Means
The 43% overall approval is below the 44% threshold that historically separates presidents who face modest midterm losses from those who face wave elections. Since 1946, every president below 44% approval at the midterm has seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats. Presidents above 44% average losses of only 14 seats. Trump at 43% sits in the danger zone. However, this is not a static number — approval ratings can move 3-5 points in either direction between now and November, which could meaningfully change the trajectory. An economic improvement or major security event could push Trump above 44%; a recession confirmation or major scandal could push him toward the low 40s or below.
The 11-Point Gender Gap: Historical Context
Trump's 11-point gender gap (Men 49%, Women 38%) is one of the most significant political cleavages in contemporary American politics. For context, the gender gap in presidential approval has widened steadily since the 1980s: Reagan averaged a 4-point gender gap; Clinton averaged 6 points; Obama averaged 7 points; Biden averaged 5 points. Trump's 11-point gap in his second term is wider than any of his predecessors at comparable points in their presidencies.
The gender gap is not uniform across demographic subgroups. Among college-educated women, Trump's approval is approximately 28% — 21 points below his overall number. Among non-college women, his approval is closer to 46%. This education-gender interaction is the central dynamic in competitive suburban House districts, where college-educated women constitute a disproportionately large share of the electorate relative to their national population weight.
The age gradient — 36% approval at 18-29 rising to 47% at 65+ — reflects a broader pattern of generational political sorting. Younger voters are more liberal across nearly every issue dimension; older voters who came of age before the culture war realignment of the 1990s-2000s maintain more traditional partisan attachments. For 2026 electoral purposes, the key age cohort is 30-44, where Trump's 41% approval is below his overall number but not catastrophically so, suggesting that generation has not completely sorted against him despite significant leftward movement in their 2020 and 2022 voting behavior.
